Structural risk analysis of a potential Ebola outbreak with respect to infrastructural aspects amid the current COVID-19 pandemic

Due to the ease and increased volume of global interaction, it remains unclear whether the current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will be a one-off event or whether the world is at risk of recurrent pandemics as a result of globalization. To address this important issue, the present study assessed the risk of a possible future Ebola pandemic. The risk profile of Hubei province in China was compared with that of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in terms of travel and infrastructure, since DRC is considered a major epicenter for Ebola outbreaks. Recurrence patterns of previous Ebola outbreaks were analyzed in a cumulative outbreak model. Internationally available data on air traffic, flight destinations, passenger numbers, population density, distribution and domestic traffic routes were all analyzed and compared between the DRC and Hubei province. DRC is a major epicenter for Ebola outbreaks, with 13 recorded outbreaks from 1976 until 2020. International airports at both Kinshasa, the capital city of the DRC and Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province, are heavily frequented destinations and represent major transfer hubs on their respective continents. Volumes of flights to and from extracontinental destinations account for <25% of total flights at both airports with similar total international passenger volumes. However, the volume of domestic commuting by aviation is >30-fold higher at Hubei province compared with that of the DRC. This finding is also reflected by the higher population density and homogeneity in terms of population per square kilometer in Hubei. Following the analysis of decades of Ebola reports, it became evident that the DRC remains a hotspot for potential Ebola outbreaks in the future due to constantly recurrent local outbreaks. In terms of the international aviation network, numerous important similarities between Kinshasa and Hubei Province were observed as regards connectivity. The present comparative analysis extends beyond biological factors underlying Ebola and COVID-19 transmissions and confirms that the DRC, Kinshasa in particular, is not a remote location. Although internal commuting and population density may be lower in the DRC compared with those in Hubei province, integration into the international aviation network is similarly extensive. The international community must increase its focus and efforts in preventing another possible global pandemic commencing in Africa, and in particular the DRC.

Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID-19 epicenters.

With multiple virus epicenters, COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID-19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID-19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, including China, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, and Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID-19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval. Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance.

Current meta-analysis does not support the possibility of COVID-19 reinfections.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reinfections could be a major aggravating factor in this current pandemic, as this would further complicate potential vaccine development and help to maintain worldwide virus pockets. To investigate this critical question, we conducted a clinical meta-analysis including all available currently reported cases of potential COVID-19 reinfections. We searched for all peer-reviewed articles in the search engine of the National Center for Biotechnology Information. While there are over 30,000 publications on COVID-19, only about 15 specifically target the subject of COVID-19 reinfections. Available patient data in these reports was analyzed for age, gender, time of reported relapse after initial infection and persistent COVID-19 positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results. Following the first episode of infection, cases of clinical relapse are reported at 34 (mean) ± 10.5 days after full recovery. Patients with clinical relapse have persisting positive COVID-19 PCR testing results until 39 ± 9 days following initial positive testing. For patients without clinical relapse, positive testing was reported up to 54 ± 24 days. There were no reports of any clinical reinfections after a 70-day period following initial infection.

Internationally lost COVID-19 cases.

BACKGROUND: With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). While many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China, an increasing number of cases with or without travel background to China are confirmed daily. These developments support concerns on possible unidentified and unreported international COVID-19 cases, which could lead to new local disease epicenters. METHODS: We have analyzed all available data on the development of international COVID-19 cases from January 20th, 2020 until February 18th, 2020. COVID-19 cases with and without travel history to China were divided into cohorts according to the Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ-Index) of each country. Chi-square and Post-hoc testing were performed. RESULTS: While COVID-19 cases with travel history to China seem to peak for each HAQ-cohort, the number of non-travel related COVID-19 cases seem to continuously increase in the HAQ-cohort of countries with higher medical standards. Further analyses demonstrate a significantly lower proportion of reported COVID-19 cases without travel history to China in countries with lower HAQ (HAQ I vs. HAQ II, posthoc p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that countries with lower HAQ-index may either underreport COVID-19 cases or are unable to adequately detect them. Although our data may be incomplete and must be interpreted with caution, inconsistencies in reporting COVID-19 cases is a serious problem which might sabotage efforts to contain the virus.

The association between international and domestic air traffic and the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic. Many countries are facing increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases, which are, in their origin mostly attributed to regular international flight connections with China. This study aims to investigate this relation by analyzing available data on air traffic volume and the spread of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: and findings: We analyzed available data on current domestic and international passenger volume and flight routes and compared these to the distribution of domestic and international COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: Our data indicate a strong linear correlation between domestic COVID-19 cases and passenger volume for regions within China (r2 = 0.92, p = 0.19) and a significant correlation between international COVID-19 cases and passenger volume (r2 = 0.98, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The number of flight routes as well as total passenger volume are highly relevant risk factors for the spread of current COVID-19. Multiple regions within Asia, as well as some in North America and Europe are at serious risk of constant exposure to COVID-19 from China and other highly infected countries. Risk for COVID-19 exposure remains relatively low in South America and Africa. If adequate measures are taken, including on-site disease detection and temporary passenger quarantine, limited but not terminated air traffic can be a feasible option to prevent a long-term crisis. Reasonable risk calculations and case evaluations per passenger volume are crucial aspects which must be considered when reducing international flights.

The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

BACKGROUND: With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear. METHODS: We analyzed the available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% CI: 1.9-2.6) to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5-4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1-26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, P < 0.05 vs after lockdown: r = 0.91, P = NS). CONCLUSIONS: A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seems to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.